First Foldable iPhone to Capture 25% of Global Market
Analysts at Counterpoint Research expect Apple to quickly become one of the largest players in the foldable smartphone market. In 2026, the first foldable iPhone could capture 25% of the global market, and by 2027, the company’s share is forecast to rise to 40%.
Apple will immediately take the second spot
Counterpoint forecasts foldable iPhone shipments of up to 6 million units in 2026. This should be enough for second place with a 25% share, even though the device will go on sale only toward the end of the year.
According to Counterpoint’s forecast, the market landscape at the end of 2026 will look like this:
| Manufacturer | Market share |
|---|---|
| Samsung | 38% |
| Apple | 25% |
| Huawei | 22% |
| Motorola | 6% |
| HONOR | 3% |
| Others | 6% |
Thus, Apple could immediately surpass Huawei and rank only behind Samsung, which remains the largest manufacturer of foldable smartphones. Analysts believe that initial iPhone sales will be constrained primarily by production volumes rather than demand. Shipments are planned to expand gradually as output increases.
By 2027, Apple’s share could rise to 40%
After the first full year of sales, the situation could change even more significantly. Counterpoint expects foldable iPhone shipments in 2027 to more than double, with Apple’s market share reaching 40%. With this result, the company could claim leadership in the segment, although analysts do not provide a separate forecast for Samsung’s share in 2027 in the public part of the report.
At the same time, the global market for foldable smartphones is projected to grow by 37% year over year, according to Counterpoint. By the end of 2026, cumulative shipments of such devices since the category’s emergence in 2019 are expected to exceed 100 million units.
A similar scenario is being followed by IDC. The company also forecasts that Apple will hold approximately 40% of the global foldable smartphone market by 2027. With an average price for a foldable iPhone exceeding $2550, Apple devices could generate over $45,7 billion and account for more than half of the total value of the entire segment.
At the same time, estimates of the market size vary among analytics firms. IDC expects foldable smartphone shipments to grow by 12.6% in 2026 to 22.9 million units and by another 18% in 2027, reaching approximately 27 million.
Niche smartphones
Despite Apple’s anticipated surge, foldable models currently account for about 2% of the global smartphone market. Counterpoint notes that such devices cost roughly three times more than traditional smartphones on average, so widespread adoption of this category is still far off.
The first foldable iPhone is expected at Apple’s presentation on September 9.
